Monterey Car Week 2024: A Turning Point for the Classic Car Market
The annual Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance, scheduled for August 18, 2024, in Monterey, California, is set to showcase an estimated $400 million worth of collectible cars—a significant event that serves as an indicator for the state of the classic car market. The prestigious event, celebrated since 1950, features a breathtaking array of the world’s most beautiful vehicles along the stunning Carmel Bay.
As part of Monterey Car Week, approximately 1,140 classic cars are poised to hit the auction block. Experts predict sales could reach between $367 million and $409 million, although the midpoint of that range—$388 million—would signify a continued decline in sales for the third consecutive year, reflecting an 18% drop from the peak of $471 million in 2022.
A troubling trend is evident, particularly at the high end of the market. Traditionally filled with several cars priced at $10 million or more, this year’s auction features only one such vehicle, marking the lowest count in over a decade. Furthermore, the average sale price has dipped slightly from $477,000 to $473,000.
Market Dynamics: A Shift in Generational Focus
Experts attribute the slowdown in the classic car market to a mix of global uncertainties and a generational shift in collectors. The market has been under pressure due to geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, economic challenges in China, and rising interest rates, which have made cash transactions more appealing.
“There’s a big rotation occurring in the classic car market,” says McKeel Hagerty, CEO of Hagerty. “Older collectors are aging out, while millennials and Gen Z are coming into wealth and are interested in different types of collectibles—often preferring newer vehicles.”
This generational change is expected to drive a whopping $100 trillion in wealth transfer from baby boomers to younger generations. However, younger collectors tend to gravitate towards modern supercars and less traditional collectibles, leading to an oversupply of classic cars from the 1950s and 1960s, which are experiencing plummeting prices.
Auction Highlights and Market Trends
One vehicle expected to generate significant bids is a 1961 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider Competizione, with estimates exceeding $20 million. The rarity of such vehicles is evident as classic selections like these begin to make way for more modern preferences.
In 2022, the average model year for cars sold at Pebble Beach was 1964; this year, it is 1974. Notably, there are larger sales figures for modern supercars, specifically those manufactured from 1975 onward, as younger generations continue to bid aggressively, often for vehicles that are practical for everyday use.
Sales of iconic brands like Ferrari and Bugatti are also noteworthy. A 1993 Ferrari F40 LM is expected to fetch between $8.5 million and $9.5 million, while a rare 2020 Bugatti Divo could sell for between $7 million and $9 million.
Future of Collecting
Despite the fluctuations in market prices, collectors remain cautiously optimistic. With a notable rise in private sales—often allowing owners to avoid public embarrassment over potential losses—there are still lucrative opportunities in the collectible auto markets.
The emergence of a new generation of collectors prioritizes practical and enjoyable cars over rare, high-value collectibles that can become more of a burden than a joy. “Collecting shouldn’t solely be about investment,” Kidston notes. “It should also be about passion.”
As the classic car market adapts to changing tastes and economic factors, Monterey Car Week may well position itself as a pivotal moment in reshaping collector interests, paving the way for new standards in automotive appreciation.
